to prepare your organization for the economic downturn? More from my experience and Arena Stage later this week, but check out the following headlines:
St. Louis Arts Museum delays $125 million expansion:
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/entertainment/stories.nsf/entertainment/visualarts/story/4efc5e0a4a78af6a862574f90069fed1?OpenDocument
Oregon Shakespeare Festival runs into Money Crunch:http://www.statesmanjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081102/COLUMN0801/811020304/1083/COLUMN
NY City Ballet Cuts Season: http://www.saratogian.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=20186738&BRD=1169&PAG=461&dept_id=602469&rfi=6
A Rough Road Ahead for Broadway:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/05/theater/05bway.html?_r=1&ref=arts&oref=slogin
Opera Pacific Closes Down:
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/opera-company-jones-2217667-pacific-county
Milwaukee Shakespeare Dies:
http://www.jsonline.com/entertainment/arts/33613864.html
CTG announces Entertainment Stimulus Package:
http://www.theatermania.com/content/news.cfm/story/15957
Arts Groups Dig in to Weather Economy:
http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20081102/SCENE05/811020317/1011/SCENE
Museums Hit Hard by Economy:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122533230729582915.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
DC Fundraisers Show Signs of Trouble:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/reliable-source/2008/10/rs-harman29.html
From the trenches: It's Ok to Say You Don't Know
First off, an apology for not writing much lately. However, since I am a practitioner and not an academic, my days have been filled with trying to address the worsening economic reality, rather than writing about it. These are the days that make me wish sometimes I was in academia, because studying this phenomenon would be really interesting.
If you are like me, and like many of my colleagues, you have been hearing one question a lot lately, probably from board members and executive staff: how is the economy going to affect our sales for the rest of the season, and how do we adjust to anticipate for the impact?
I am proud of the Arena Stage board and senior staff for taking significant steps to prepare for the impact of the market crash, but if you are in a position where you are ultimately responsible for providing accurate sales projections and models like I am, it is one hell of a task. When asked earlier this week by several members of the executive committee of our board how bad it is going to get, I responded with only three words -- I don't know. They were the only three words that I thought I could deliver with integrity and honesty.
I have been running models everyday for the past four weeks. I have extensively studied the impact of the 1987 market crash and the crash post 9/11 to find some sort of path to guide me. But I ultimately decided that there is no precedent that I could find in Arena Stage's 58 year history that could accurately guide me. Which leaves me in a place where I have to "go with my gut." I hate that. I am a math and science guy in an artistic world (I have minors in mathematics and physics). I have been trained over and over again to go with scientific models because one's gut is unreliable. And here I am with nothing in our history to guide me.
So I felt that the executive staff of the company and the board needs to know that I will work day and night to get us to a place where we have what I feel to be the most reliable model that reflects the impact of the market crash, but it will be my best guess. Even though this makes me uncomfortable, I am reassured by knowing that as this is my area of expertise, I believe my projections will be the most accurate.
That being said, at the end of the day, when asked what is the impact of what Alan Greenspan calls the "worst economic crisis he has seen" (and the man is 82 years old), I feel that the only honest answer any of us can say is -- I don't know. If you believe that this is a once in a lifetime economic failure as I do, then no one has seen the impact of a market failure of this size since my grandparents generation during the Great Depression.
Morale of post: in reporting to executive staff and board, do your due diligence, prepare conservative sales models and projections, and don't be afraid to admit what you don't know.
PostScript:
From Michael Kaiser's ArtsManager Blog: "None of us running arts organizations in the United States has experienced this level of economic meltdown. The experiences we had in more recent financial downturns do not prepare us adequately for what is happening now. And the full impact of the financial crisis has yet to be felt in many cities. I know I need to make changes to the operations of the Kennedy Center, I simply do not know how much to change and over what time frame. "
If you are like me, and like many of my colleagues, you have been hearing one question a lot lately, probably from board members and executive staff: how is the economy going to affect our sales for the rest of the season, and how do we adjust to anticipate for the impact?
I am proud of the Arena Stage board and senior staff for taking significant steps to prepare for the impact of the market crash, but if you are in a position where you are ultimately responsible for providing accurate sales projections and models like I am, it is one hell of a task. When asked earlier this week by several members of the executive committee of our board how bad it is going to get, I responded with only three words -- I don't know. They were the only three words that I thought I could deliver with integrity and honesty.
I have been running models everyday for the past four weeks. I have extensively studied the impact of the 1987 market crash and the crash post 9/11 to find some sort of path to guide me. But I ultimately decided that there is no precedent that I could find in Arena Stage's 58 year history that could accurately guide me. Which leaves me in a place where I have to "go with my gut." I hate that. I am a math and science guy in an artistic world (I have minors in mathematics and physics). I have been trained over and over again to go with scientific models because one's gut is unreliable. And here I am with nothing in our history to guide me.
So I felt that the executive staff of the company and the board needs to know that I will work day and night to get us to a place where we have what I feel to be the most reliable model that reflects the impact of the market crash, but it will be my best guess. Even though this makes me uncomfortable, I am reassured by knowing that as this is my area of expertise, I believe my projections will be the most accurate.
That being said, at the end of the day, when asked what is the impact of what Alan Greenspan calls the "worst economic crisis he has seen" (and the man is 82 years old), I feel that the only honest answer any of us can say is -- I don't know. If you believe that this is a once in a lifetime economic failure as I do, then no one has seen the impact of a market failure of this size since my grandparents generation during the Great Depression.
Morale of post: in reporting to executive staff and board, do your due diligence, prepare conservative sales models and projections, and don't be afraid to admit what you don't know.
PostScript:
From Michael Kaiser's ArtsManager Blog: "None of us running arts organizations in the United States has experienced this level of economic meltdown. The experiences we had in more recent financial downturns do not prepare us adequately for what is happening now. And the full impact of the financial crisis has yet to be felt in many cities. I know I need to make changes to the operations of the Kennedy Center, I simply do not know how much to change and over what time frame. "
Hoping to see you in Houston...
The National Arts Marketing Project Conference is a little more than a month away, and I am starting to feel like a child just before Christmas! It is the only time during the entire year that I get to see my colleagues from around the nation, and learn about what everyone else is doing. The markets are changing daily. Buying habits are shifting radically. And who knows what is on the horizon. This conference couldn't come at a better time!
This year I am honored to be participating in the following panels and/or presentations:
This year I am honored to be participating in the following panels and/or presentations:
- Marketing and Fundraising: Marking Your Territory or Joined at the Hip (with Damian Sinclair, Director of Development, Arena Stage)
- Entrances, Exits, and Escalators: Keep Ticket Buyers Coming In and Moving Up
- Roundtable Discussion on PURLs (Personalized URLs)
When I am not speaking, you will be able to find me at the following presentations:
- The Pricing Institute. Thank God that this was added this year. Arena Stage is on the verge of opening the Mead Center for American Theater after a $125 million campaign. The last pricing study that we conducted was several years ago, and we are opening a completely new theater. Not to mention that Alan Brown is pure genius (I think I have a man crush...)
- Love Your Aging Audiences. A couple of years ago, I had the pleasure of sitting on a panel with Phillipe Ravanas. That day I realized how much I didn't know. Now is my opportunity to listen to him again. And some have accused me of being too technology-centered for an aging audience.
- Are you an Urbanite? Attracting Young Ticket Buyers and Donors. Well, I figured if I spent the morning learning how to love my aging audiences, I should spend the afternoon trying to figure out how to love myself.
- Free Night of Theater--How it Can Work for You. So a friend of mine from graduate school (Mr. Terence McFarland) and the Chair of my board (Mr. Mark Shugoll) are presenting, so you know I am there. They are both incredibly creative. Oh, and Brad is pretty smart as well.
- Loyalty Strategies: Reinventing the Audience Relationship. I have been hearing about the work NJPAC has been doing with consultant Neill Archer Roan around loyalty programs for a while now. I am excited to hear about it in person.
And even though I have admitted my man crush on Alan Brown, I must say that I can't wait for the plenary luncheon on Monday with Karen Brooks Hopkins, the President of BAM. I have heard from colleagues who have worked with her that she is an amazing manager and an astute fundraiser.
So if you are looking for some interesting ideas on how to navigate the current economic crisis, or just need a good kick in the butt to get reenergized, register today! Don't confuse the National Arts Marketing Project Conference with the other one with a similar name--it might sound the same, but ask previous attendees and they will tell you it isn't by a long shot.
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